CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-03-21T23:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-03-21T23:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16645/-1
CME Note: CME signature is not clear and it may be combined with a stream interaction region. Arrival time was difficult to select. We discussed it with GSFC ICME experts for clarification. From Dr. Lan Jian: There is a magnetic obstacle from Mar 26 21:35 to Mar 27 14:40, characterized by some non-smooth field rotations, increased B, declining speed, and low Tp. I selected the boundaries based on the sharp changes of total B, but there are boundary layers at its two sides. After it, there is a stream interaction region, in which the fast wind speed is not that fast (less than 450 km/s), and the stream interface is at 22:48 on Mar 27.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-03-26T21:35Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-03-26T08:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: low2 (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a3b1f
WSA version: 2.2
(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)

WSA-ENLIL+Cone Model For 2.0 AU with Completion Time: 2021-03-22T22:21Z

Model Inputs:
2021-03-22T03:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-43.0, Lat.=-23.0, Speed=406.0, HalfAngle=20.0, Time21.5=2021-03-22T11:57Z
2021-03-21T23:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=24.0, Lat.=10.0, Speed=281.0, HalfAngle=30.0, Time21.5=2021-03-22T16:34Z

Model Outputs:
Earth Impact:
(Glancing Blow) Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2021-03-26T08:00Z (+- 7 hours)

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO A with estimated shock arrival time 2021-03-25T08:00Z (Glancing Blow)

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210322_163400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Note:

Submitted on 2021-03-22T22:37Z by Ethan Robinett

Lead Time: 95.23 hour(s)
Difference: 13.58 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Robert Loper (M2M Office) on 2021-03-22T22:21Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy